Leveraging the competition between the US and China could present opportunities for African nations to negotiate better terms and conditions for development
Leveraging the competition between the US and China could present opportunities for African nations to negotiate better terms and conditions for development
The evolving nature of global politics with traditional binaries dominated by the United States and China is increasingly giving way to a more complex landscape where regions like Africa and Southeast Asia can assert their influence.
During a recent visit to South Africa, Professor Harsh Pant, Vice President, Studies and Foreign Policy at Observer Research Foundation (ORF), New Delhi, discussed his optimism about the ability of these emerging actors to carve out a niche for themselves before addressing a conference on a multipolar world order.
“I think I’m optimistic about the ability of other actors to use this and to find space for themselves. You know that Africa, for example, is a continent that is doing so well, you have a demographic dividend. I think there is an opportunity here for Africa to use this geo-political contestation to its advantage,” said Pant.
He suggested that a young and growing population could provide a strong foundation for economic and social development. “Of course, this is all against the backdrop of the weaponisation of trade and technology, which needs to be navigated carefully where the current geopolitical environment contrasts starkly with the post-Cold War era,” he continued.
Opportunities for Africa and India
Pant elaborated on the opportunities available to Africa and India amid this geo-political contestation: “I think that space has grown for a country like India, because the West also looks at India as a partner. They want technology, they want finance, you want capital.
“Similarly, Africa could harness its demographic advantage through investment in education, skills development and technological advancement. These elements are critical for transforming potential into tangible growth,” he continued.
He argued that effective governance and strong political leadership are essential for turning opportunities into developmental outcomes. The emergence of an aspirational middle class in India, driven by digital transformation and government initiatives, serves as a great example of what can be achieved with focused policy and leadership.
Challenges facing Africa
Despite the potential, Pant acknowledged the historical and contemporary challenges facing Africa. “You need visionary leadership that can navigate both past legacies and current impediments to development,” he said. These challenges include a lack of transparency and insufficient investment in digital technology, which hampers the continent’s ability to compete globally.
“When you look at India, for example, we are having lots of these debates about, ‘what can India potentially do better?’ But I think the point here is that this is a unique moment that has come. You can frame it around geo-political contestation,, but if you don’t act now the space will become lesser for Africans,” he cautioned.
The role of external influences
A significant focus of his was on the influence of Western nations and China in Africa. He underscored the complexities involved in fostering relationships between African countries and external powers. “For a long time, there has been this sense of paranoia that the Chinese are going into Africa and they’re doing a lot of things,” he said.
To some extent the Chinese faced push-back from Africa because of the need for more transparency. “There has to be better ways of working,” he continued, “It can’t be just extractive right now. If the West has to offer an alternative, that alternative has to be better than the Chinese are offering.
“So the opportunity is to leverage this US-China competition and to say: ‘Look, China is offering us this. We are willing to welcome you, but you have to offer something better.’ I think that space offers you opportunities. Now, whether or not the African elites are able to use that is a different matter altogether,” he said.
Pant stressed the necessity for the West to offer credible alternatives to Chinese investment, particularly in the context of technology and infrastructure. He pointed out that leveraging the competition between the US and China could present opportunities for African nations to negotiate better terms and conditions for development.
He did however, emphasise the importance of establishing clear frameworks that can help African nations maximise their agency in these interactions. He elaborated: “In my country, we keep on talking about demographic dividend, but demographic dividend has to be nurtured, right? You have to skill the population. You have to make them technologically sophisticated to be able to operate in a 21st century landscape.”
Leadership and unity in Africa
When discussing the impediments to Africa seizing opportunities, Professor Pant reiterated the crucial role of leadership. He called for a unified approach among African nations, advocating for leaders to come together around a shared vision and identity. “This collective action is vital for mobilising resources and building capacity across the continent,” he said.
Pant critiqued the extractive nature of the Chinese economic model, advocating for African nations to develop their own capabilities. He believes that developing local talent and resources is essential for achieving long-term economic resilience.
Technological implications
Technology was a central theme in the conversation, particularly in terms of its impact on governance and economic models. Pant identified mobile network operators as vital digital gateways into African markets. He emphasised the need for robust data governance to navigate the complex relationships between technology and national security.
Pant also referenced security concerns surrounding Chinese technology firms, such as Huawei. “African nations should be cautious about reliance on foreign technology,” he said. “The development of local technological capabilities as a means of reducing vulnerability to external pressures is absolutely vital.”
Regulatory challenges
Regulatory challenges represent another significant barrier to the growth of sectors like e-hailing services in Africa. Pant pointed out that the rapid pace of technological advancement often outstrips the ability of regulatory frameworks to adapt. He argued that effective governance is necessary to ensure that regulations keep pace with innovations, striking a balance between economic growth and security concerns.
The path forward
As the conversation drew to a close, Pant reiterated the importance of strong leadership and innovative ideas in harnessing the opportunities that lie ahead for Africa. He stressed the need for African nations to build their own capacities rather than relying solely on external partners.
“Africa must develop its technological capabilities and leverage its demographic dividend to navigate the complexities of the current geopolitical landscape,” he stressed. The future may depend on how effectively Africa can transform its potential into reality while creating an environment of unity and cooperation among its nations. “This will take visionary leadership,” he concluded.
Professor Harsh Pant is Vice President, Studies and Foreign Policy at Observer Research Foundation (ORF), New Delhi.
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