What is going to happen when 91 year-old Paul Biya dies?
When rumours circulated last week that Malawian President Lazarus Chakwera had suffered a stroke and died, the 69-year-old quickly dispelled them with a gentle jog down the streets of Blantyre.
At one point, he stopped and did 11 push-ups in quick succession – to the applause of his party supporters and onlookers.
The health of the president is a sensitive issue in Malawi. It was only a dozen years ago that the inner circle of Bingu wa Mutharika spent several days pretending that the late president’s corpse was, in fact, alive, in a failed bid to subvert the constitutional transition by hijacking the plot of Weekend at Bernie’s.
In Cameroon, the health of the president is a similarly delicate matter.
Rumours that 91-year-old Paul Biya may be dead are bubbling.
Despite official denials, he has not gone jogging – or been seen in public at all. This is despite authorities announcing on 8 October that he would be returning to Cameroon “in the next few days”.
The last time Biya was seen in public anywhere in the world was on 8 September in Beijing, after attending the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation.
He was conspicuously absent from the UN General Assembly meeting in the US weeks later, and from the Francophonie summit in Paris this month.
Biya’s cabinet chief, Samuel Mvondo Ayolo, insists that the president is in an “excellent state of health” on a “brief private stay” in Geneva.
Not many believe him, with social media rife with rumours, speculation and jokes.
Biya’s presidency, which began 41 years ago, has always been opaque, and he has never been an enthusiastic public speaker.
Long absences from the country, and public life, are nothing new.
But the recent speculation is driven by something different: the frailties that he exhibits when he does make a public appearance.
In recent years, the president has seemed barely able to carry his frail body around unaided.
At the US-Africa Summit in Washington two years ago, on stage after being called up to speak, Biya turned to his protocol officer and asked where he was and if there were any important guests in the hall, apparently unaware that the lapel mic he was wearing was still on.
Government spokesperson René Emmanuel Sadi said the rumours of Biya’s death were “pure fantasy and imagination” by detractors aiming to destabilise the country.
The interior minister has classified the president’s health as a matter of national security and banned media debates about it. “Offenders will face the full force of the law,” Interior Minister Paul Atanga Nji said.
He empowered regional governors to set up monitoring units and crack down on dissent.
Rather than threatening journalists, there is an easier way to stop the speculation, says Angela Quintal, who heads the Africa programme at the Committee to Protect Journalists. “It would have been simpler to arrange a public appearance for President Biya, wherever he may be.”
Laagering around an ailing Biya
Cameroon has one experience of dealing with a dead president – but it did not go smoothly.
The country’s only other previous head of state, Ahmadou Ahidjo, died in 1989. He does not rest in peace.After being usurped by Biya, Ahidjo fled into exile in Senegal in 1983. Six years later, he suffered a heart attack and was buried in Dakar.
This was an ignominious end for a man who had been a symbol of Cameroon’s independence, revered as a national hero.
But the Biya government, despite much public pressure, has never repatriated his remains, much to the anger of his family, people from northern Cameroon, civil society groups and opposition political parties, including the Social Democratic Front.
These groups continue to agitate for the return of Ahidjo’s body, seeing it as a way of both honouring Ahidjo and reconciling some of Cameroon’s bitter internal divisions.
There is no public protocol for what will happen to the current president’s body when he dies. Nor does the country know what to expect in his absence.
To maintain his firm grip on power, Biya wove a patronage network that would make transition from him difficult.
To keep his allies on their toes, he has never announced a clear succession plan. That means that Cameroon’s next leader may have to fight his way through a crowded chessboard of other contenders.
There are many pretenders to the throne. From Biya’s inner circle, his son Franck Biya and general secretary Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, Cabinet Chief Mvondo Ayolo, Finance Minister Louis-Paul Motazé, Justice Minister Laurent Esso and Government Spokesperson and Communications Minister Emmanuel Saidi.
The public might want to see statesmen like Akere Muna and Christopher Fomunyoh have a go. And opposition figures who sense an opportunity include Cabral Libii, Maurice Kamto, Joshua Osih and – with conspicuous support from Russia – Serge Espoir Matomba.
Whoever does end up in Yaoundé’s Unity Palace – or in Biya’s infamous corner suite at the Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva – will have their work cut out.
As Munjah Vitalis Fagha, a political scientist at the University of Buea, puts it: “We will have to start building institutions all over since we were focused on building strong men.”
The author’s identity is being kept anonymous given Cameroon’s ban on debating President Paul Biya’s health.
This article first appeared in The Continent, the pan-African weekly newspaper produced in partnership with the Mail & Guardian. It’s designed to be read and shared on WhatsApp. Download your free copy at thecontinent.org